IRAN'S NUCLEAR ROMANCE

    Water and electricity have a love hate relationship. It is a dangerously powerful conduit for electricity. But it is needed at some point in the process of making electricity. In the USA 65% of electricity comes from generators that have to be cooled. It all depends on the type of power plant that you have. The aim is to have renewable energy that is sustainable, safe and clean. 

There appears to be a reasonable case for Iran to have a nuclear power plant. Iran joined the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since 1958. Responsibility for the oil sector, atomic energy and gas sector falls on the Ministry of Petroleum and the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran. 

Iran's National Energy Strategy Document  lays out plans to expand its nuclear power programme up to 2040. The country has made commitments to renewable clean energy, to improve energy security and reducing green gas emissions. The intention is to increase the share of nuclear power for the nation's energy mix. 

Join me as I review:

• the reason for a Nuclear Power Plant in a natural fit
• the long term commitment in the courtship
• the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in the marriage contract
• the deeper issues in the wrong fit
• the first love

 

A NATURAL FIT

Globally, the sources of fresh water are running out. In the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries, there are serious issues with water and rising temperatures. The Arab Water Council  launched in 2004 reported that precipitation will drop by 30% by 2050. The rate of groundwater depletion has doubled between 1960-2000. Almost the entire population in MENA, and South Asia,  will be under severe water stress due to increased population and urbanisation.

As resources become scarce, tensions increase. Governments are stressed, citizens are stressed and life changes. According to the World Water Crisis fresh water is becoming more limited due to poor management and water as a resource, should be protected. Physical water scarcity is typical for Central Asia,  MENA, Australia, South Africa and Northern China. It is due to:

• excessive withdrawals 
• natural dryness in the atmosphere  
• increased urbanisation or population demands 

In the last hundred years, the average temperature in Iran has risen by about 1.8 degrees, 1.5 times more than the average global rise. The effects of a rise in temperature is obvious in the fast reduction of surface water, the increased occurrences of droughts, and the growing shortage of fresh water for drinking and agriculture.  

The water distress is seen in the more than 70% increase in wells in Iran. From 460,000 to 794,000, while its population grew by only 17 percent between 2002-2015. However, although the number of wells grew the amount of pumping increased. Despite the significant increase in the number of wells, the total amount of water pumped each year from its natural groundwater reservoirs decreased.  This is overexploitation of the limited groundwater. 

The depletion is significant for agricultural areas, as most of the water used is pumped from the depths of the earth. The most significant decrease in volume is in northwestern Iran, home to more than 25% of the population.  If this kind of exploitation of groundwater continues, Iran is expected to face an environmental and socio-economic crisis very soon.

Less water is required for a nuclear power plant. Water is needed for; the drilling, and fuel refining and processing of the uranium, and for the nuclear power plant itself. 20-60 gallons of water is used for every kilowatt-hour of electricity produced depending on the cooling process. I think water has a cool relationship with uranium. Get it?

Energy consumption in Iran for electricity grew with a compound annual growth rate of 6.07%, while bioenergy and waste was at a growth rate of 7.06% between 2000 - 2017. Despite connection with the national grid in 2011, nuclear energy records started in 2015 at 2.91 and jumped to 7.45 by 2017. It is in the process of building a second nuclear plant which started in 2019. This plant will have a capacity of 1057 MW(e). The third Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is due to commence this year 2021.

Uranium

 

The uranium production plant in Bandar Abbas has a nominal capacity of 21 tU/a and the Ardakan Yellow Cake Production Plant has a nominal production capacity of 50 tU/a. Uranium ore is mined from the Saghand uranium mine and open pit mining of the Gachin salt plug. 1kg of uranium contains energy comparable to 3100 tons of coal or 1700 tons of oil. It is a cheap form of energy and conserves foreign exchange in the power sector. 

The disadvantages of such a plant are as follows:

• Hight capital investment
• High maintenance cost
• Radioactive wastes should be disposed of with a long-term plan
• Skilled workers needed 
• It is better for consistent loads
• Dangerous for radioactive hazards
• Working conditions is always high risk

The nuclear power plant is a home for the peaceful atom until there is an accident. I have to point out that there are emerging technologies that will change the outlook of the nuclear power for electricity and the security of the world, in the development of nuclear weapons. But currently standard technologies used in most nuclear power plants worldwide are to some extent outdated and inefficient.

THE COURTSHIP

The meet cute. In every romance there is the point where the couple meets for the first time. A poignant moment or an aha moment. From very early in the 1950s as soon as the nuclear technology debuted in world history, the Shah of Iran decided it was destiny. I cannot say the precise moment. It started with joining the U.S. Atoms for Peace Program (USAPP).

I can trace back to a patient and prolonged courtship between the Shah and nuclear. He saw her from a distance, fell in love and chased after her. The Shah was definitely smitten to commit on a long term. By 1973 the Shah announced that by the end of the century he will install 23000MWe of nuclear power in Iran.  

 

Nuclear marries The Shah. For the honeymoon the couple socialised on the international scene. Iran bought 10% of Eurodif's Tricastin uranium enrichment plant in France and 15% of a uranium mine in Namibia. They shopped in South Africa spending $700 million worth on uranium. When they became a family, they educated and trained their children abroad. After the revolution they continued to work on developing a nuclear fuel cycle and enrichment capabilities. This is definitely a power couple.

But the fall out started, revolution in 1979. The trained personnel fled from Iran. Technical assistance once provided under the USAPP stopped.  The relationship ended when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came into power. With the Shah out of the way Nuclear could turn to no one. After a prolonged seduction of five years Khomeini gave in. At this point I wonder who is courting whom? 

Nuclear's love affair. The new couple had new friends who would help them in different ways to develop their plans; Russia, China, Argentina and Pakistan. But most everyone began to suspect their plans. By 2002, the affair became a scandal. Iran's hidden nuclear weapons agenda was revealed by The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). It was out in the open; undeclared nuclear facilities, a heavy water production plant at Arak, and the who's who behind the scenes.

In September the IAEA stepped in to conduct tests, and investigations. Although the Additional Protocol was signed, the Board of Governors were weary. The IAEA requested further investigation, due to the original intentions of concealment of a nuclear weapons development programme and the difference in what Iran was admitting to and what they were proven to have. Needless to say, there was a deep love affair with a number of turns and bumps on the road but the lovers remained committed. To avoid scrutiny they continued the relationship in secret. 

The secret affair. Critics of Iran's nuclear power plant have been raising red flags:

• Iran turned to the EU-3 to avoid being reported to the U.N. Security Council
• When Iran signed the Additional Protocol with the IAEA in 2003 Iran took advantage of the definition of 'suspension' to continue to develop centrifuge parts and experiment on conversion
• Despite signing the 2004 Paris Agreement, the C.I.A. was provided evidence of Iran was modifying its Shahab-3 missile to carry a nuclear warhead
• In 2004 the IAEA found out that Iran had blueprints and plans that proved its intentions for a nuclear weapons development programme. Iran denied it at first but later admitted to it.

Iran is determined that they would continue and announced it on several occasions over the years; 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2009 (disclosures of their activities). Sanctions came and new agreements negotiated with different bodies. Nothing would stop them and each agreement would be broken by Iran. Nuclear would not allow Iran to betray her. 

THE MARRIAGE CONTRACT 

If there was a marriage contract proposed for these two it would be the most recent nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This was in 2015 with; China, Germany, France, Russia, United Kingdom and USA. Stringent economic sanctions on Iran would be lifted on the basis of Iran reducing, eradicating and complying with strict nuclear energy regulations. It was spear headed by then USA President, Barack Obama. It was very much appeasing to Iran rather than deterring.

It was based on the country reducing its storage of enriched uranium and a cap placed on the purity of the refining of the uranium at 3.67%. Sanctions placed on Iran would be lifted and Iran would be able to reintegrate into trade frameworks. This was on the basis of dismantling the nuclear programme. In 2015, the JCPOA agreement which was highly criticised was signed by Iran.

Once again Nuclear has ensured her future. In June 2021, the IAEA has asked Iran to explain the presence of uranium in locations where it should not be. To date no explanation has been given. There are those who blame Donald Trump who as President of USA had withdrawn from the multilateral agreement. However, Trump had no confidence on how effective the deal was considering, Iran's behaviour patterns. Also, he understood the factor of time on this situation. 

THE WRONG FIT

Like most nations Iran wants to be self sufficient enough to secure food. This is  born in part as a result of international sanctions imposed on it. But that should have been a lesson to learn not to rebel against. It would appear that the priorities are not properly aligned with the needs of the people. The planning is done in a traditional manner without consideration for the situation in the ME.

2019 Exports

Although in 2019  Iran was the biggest importer of rice. A fifth of the population are employed in the agriculture industry. With its focus on agriculture for export, water depletion is worsened through the use of ground water for irrigation and food production. To complicate this, when the agriculture is exported the water is indirectly exported with it.

The natural environment is also harmed. Due to the low water density in them, freshwater aquifers usually reside over saltier and denser aquifers. Over-pumping from the fresh water in the upper aquifer reduces the pressure exerted on the deep saline reservoir underneath. Once depleted the salt water spreads upwards and pollutes the surface with salts. Indeed, in some agricultural provinces in Iran, a significant increase in soil salinity has been measured, which could impair its fertility and also exacerbate the country's food shortage. 

Additionally, the disappearance of the aquifers affect the mass balance of the soil, causing it to compact and sink. Land subsidence due to groundwater loss is not new throughout Iran. This includes its capital Tehran, with its surrounding areas  sinking at a rate of about 20 centimeters per year. Soil compaction reduces the capacity of groundwater reservoirs, and impairs soil stability in earthquakes and thus also increases the potential for damage to buildings and infrastructure due to seismic activity.

In other countries when there is a heat wave the nuclear power plant has to be shut down. Given all the facts I have presented so far, I do not see how this can be any different in Iran. Therefore the nuclear power plant is not simply for electricity.

THE FIRST LOVE 

For me, Iran's first love should be its people but it has been romancing Nuclear like a lover instead. It's focus on the military side has created the kind of gaps in the economy that cannot be neglected. The younger population is growing, most people are dependent on the oil and gas, agriculture or military sectors for employment.

Because Iran has pursued this toxic relationship with Nuclear, it has become toxic to everyone else involved. It is clear that the nuclear power plant has been a rouse to develop a nuclear weapons programme. Indeed, it is a betrayal of trust for the people of Iran. This is like a tragic romance. Iran seems to have forgotten its first love. 

You can read more on the nuclear weapons programme in Iran in my next blog where I work out the issue of trust in Iran. I get into more details of the current situation.

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