TRUST IN A NUCLEAR ROMANCE

    Trust is a very important characteristic in relationships. It is relevant for personal intimate relationships all the way to international relationships between countries. Marketing, religion, sales, and politics are based on trust. Trust is in short supply. Globally trust in media, government and religion is lacking. Trust is a factor that is created out of relationship. Trustworthiness is rewarded by improved sustainability. 

Iran and Nuclear Interests

According to Dan Saelinger, oxytocin is a chemical released in the brain of an animal if it feels safe to approach another animal. He suggests that it may be produced in humans in similar situations. When people work at high trust companies they are 74% less stressed, they have 106% more energy at work. They are more satisfied, more engaged and less burnt out. 

The e-commerce industry has grown exponentially. It depends on trust in online transactions. Consumers scrutinise the partners and suppliers of the company and their ethics to determine if they can trust the company. Trust is necessary especially for the millennial and Generation Z consumers to buy in. 

This is what international relations is like. You cannot be there to see everything that is going on in a country but based on the agreements that country signs, its relationships with other countries, and how it meets its sustainability goals for its people, you can know where their priorities are. A good human capital index should indicate if a government can be trusted to care for its people. 

In a previous blog I discuss the nuclear power plant as a choice and why it is not the best choice for Iran. Other than scarce water resource, mismanagement of resources and increased population growth, there are other issues surrounding the choice of a nuclear power plant. 

The  plant offers an opportunity to have access to material and aspects of the process needed for making nuclear weapons. This is where the production of oxytocin is endangered. For some persons it has been a question of Iran's intentions with a nuclear power plant. For others, more so today, it has been a question of trusting Iran with a nuclear weapons development programme.

For this blog I am doing my part to work out trust in Iran having a nuclear weapons programme. In the previous blog I concluded that Iran's choice to pursue the nuclear power plant has not achieved anything of significance for its people. I will determine my oxytocin levels as I look at:

• The people
• 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action 
• Sustainability
• 2016-2021
• Threats
• Betrayal of trust

THE PEOPLE

The human capital index for Iran is average. It rates around 75th in the world. This places it mid-way, but in comparison, Israel is around 28th. In looking at how the people are treated I am looking at the most recent events:

• elections
• freedom
• utilities 

Sayyid Ebrahim Raisolsadati
(Ebrahim Raisi), President 

Elections. For the elections this year the Iranians took to social media and said they will not vote. The elections has nothing to do with them since they already know who will win. Sure enough, the Ayatollah's choice won. A point to note is that Ebrahim Raisi  the new President is called the executioner. Amnesty International has been raising concerns as he is said to be responsible for the murder of more than 30,000 opponents to the government since 1988. The people have lost trust in the government.

Freedom. An example of Iran's extremism and human rights violations can be seen in the attempted kidnapping of an exiled Iranian journalist in USA. Masih Alinejad had founded a movement to encourage women to remove the hijab and spoke out against the Iranian regime. The attempt occurred in early July 2021 when USA decided to lift sanctions. It shows the true priorities of the regime.

July 2021, has been a horrific month for Iranians. The people try peaceful protest for water and are met with live bullets e.g. Khuzestan. Where is the international community? This is the usual response. In February 2021, 30 people were killed by Iranian armed forces in Iran's Baluchistan province. Protestors can be seen in the video below. The Revolutionary Guard Corps had ordered that live bullets be used on the protestors. Can I trust the international community to protect the Iranian people?

Utilities. There are many parts in Iran without electricity. Below you will see a video of The Emergency Room (ER) in a Tehran hospital July 2021. 

 

Without electricity, water cannot be pumped in many parts. The fourth largest city in Iran, Kermanshah, has no pipe borne water, July 2021. This dire situation demonstrates that Iran cannot be trusted to care for its people. The average human capital index is just for appearances to the outside world. How the people are treated is like social proof of the true intentions of the regime.

 

THE JCPOA - JOINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN OF ACTION

The most recent nuclear deal with Iran was in 2015 and you can read more about it if you click here. It was spear headed by then USA President, Barack Obama. As a strategy it can be described as appeasing to Iran rather than deterring. The many criticisms indicated that there was a lack of trust in the agreement.

This deal opposed the United Nations economic sanctions on Iran, placed limits on Iran's main facilities for its nuclear weapons programme and gave some commitment to never build a nuclear weapon.

 

According to Obama;

It'll be a lot easier for us to check Iran's nefarious activities, to push back against the other areas where they operate contrary to our interests or our allies’ interests if they don't have the bomb.

According to Amir Basiri an Iranian Human Rights Activist and nine times contributor to Forbes the relationship between Obama and Iran was suspicious. He cited the following as indicators:  

• Obama ignored the 2009 uprising in Iran choosing to have secret correspondence with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
• The array of lobbyist funded by Iran who interacted with Obama and his administration. They were all agreeing on an appeasement strategy instead of deterrence
• The amount of meetings at the White House with Trita Parsi, President, National Iranian American Council (33 meetings between 2013-2016) 
• Trista Parsi meeting with several senior Obama administration officials in dozens of White House visits
• NIAC alumni member Sahar Nowrouzzadeh becoming the National Security Council Director for Iran in the White House and had daily access to Obama
• NIAC created in USA, to influence political interests in the Islamic Republic and acts as a lobbying organisation, not meeting the U.S. national interests
• Clear manipulation between Javad Zarif then the Iranian ambassador to the U.N. and Parsi in 2003

Basiri wrote that in 2015 a parallel nuclear program was set up and moved to an undisclosed location. Is it any wonder that the JCPOA failed to stop Iran? Appeasing someone who has been taking advantage of every loophole or hiding space makes no sense. He was eventually proven right as uranium has been found in locations it is not supposed to be in.

By July 2019, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif announced that 300kgs of low-enriched uranium was stockpiled. This was in violation of the agreement. Many people blame this on Donald Trump, then President of USA for pulling out of the agreement in 2018. Even in 2018 Trump would have been aware of the history of the situation. 

It is not simply a question of trusting Iran with a nuclear weapons programme. I have to decide if I can trust the rest of the world to safeguard me with an agreement.  The recommendations by the The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI was the organisation that exposed the weapons programme in 2002) seems to me to be the only logical response to have been made then and now: 

• A complete stop to Iran’s nuclear enrichment program
• Dismantling all entities and all subordinate organisations that form Iran's weaponisation programme
• The full access given to the IAEA, permanently and unhindered for all locations
• Iran must give account for all past activities and answer outstanding questions

With every agreement Iran has consistently continued to work towards a weapons programme of nuclear proportion. Capacity was enhanced, enrichment went past limits, and they got more time to do more. This reminds me of Yasser Arafat's Strategy of Stages, every agreement will give them time to prepare and give them more ground. The experience gained cannot be unlearnt or undone. Another reason why I cannot produce oxytocin on this situation. The situation leading up to 2015 is the same after 2015. No difference.  

Containment. The JCPOA failed to contain Iran because Iran continued to destabilise the region. Iran publicly incited a war in May 2021, with no repercussions from the international community. Military tensions in large part due to Iran has caused MENA countries to spend more on military, forcing a larger public debt share on GDP and higher risks to their economies. 

Iran funds resistance to government in Yemen, and uses proxies against those who signed the Abraham Accord. Due to attacks and threats by Iran on Saudi Arabia, its military spending in 2015 placed it 3^rd in the world and 5^th in the world in 2019. Yemen has a huge deficit because of its fight against the Iranian funded Houthis.

When USA pulled out of Iraq, Iran took over Iraq. It has continued to spread proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Gaza and Oman. Recently Iran has been trying to get into Afghanistan as well. Every time USA or Russia pulls out of a nation, Iran moves in. These are deliberate actions and indicate that there is a regional agenda. 

Some say they are trying to create a crescent. However, for me a simpleton, it looks like there is a secret agenda and common sense tells me that the nuclear weapons play a huge part in it. Time will tell as the saying goes. Unfortunately in this case time is not on our side.

 

Statista.com

When measuring containment I can refer to Bush's Containment plans for Iran:

1. implement strong penalties on Iran’s nuclear advance. 
2. strengthen America’s allies around Iran especially Iraq and where USA has interests
3. encourage pro-democracy movement within Iran and ultimately secure a democratic government

Currently, Iran is kicking USA out of Iraq and none of the nations in the ME except Israel is truly democratic. Nothing was actually achieved by the JCPOA. I feel my trust in this agreement has been betrayed.

Disarmament. In 1984 there was a meeting of the United Nations Disarmament Commission. India, Mexico, Tanzania, Sweden, Greece and Argentina all requested nuclear powers to halt all testing, production and deployment of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, to be immediately followed by substantial reductions of nuclear forces. Many countries, including China and the Soviet Union agreed along with many scientists and Nobel-Prize winners. 

Iran's going nuclear will put an end to any disarmament programmes. It will create a reversal. I do not think anyone truly trusts Iran. Thirty-seven years later we are still trying to discourage Iran from going nuclear. This is why I think that the only option left at this time is as NCRI suggested.

No guaranteed access. Iran is giving the impression that it wants to talk, that there is opportunity to slow the nuclear proliferation slope. But they are refusing the IAEA access to the sites that are suspected to be part of the weapons programme as revealed by Israel in 2018. 

Expiration. The deal did not give any consideration for when the deal expires. To date it is past 60% uranium enrichment and heading towards the 90% needed for a serious nuclear weapons. However, Iran can still use 60% enrichment to create a nuclear explosive. 

Iran now has 10% of the required amount at 60%. It will need 1.3 years at the current rate of 0.126 kg/day to achieve the required amount using an IR-6 production scale cascade. With two IR-6 cascade Iran will only need 8 months.

Deterrence. Iran was not deterred in any significant way. They remained with the capability for production for plutonium and uranium for warheads with the JCPOA. Resumption of the nuclear weapons programme has commenced. 

SUSTAINABILITY   

If Iran runs out of uranium it would be easy to source uranium from Kazakhstan due to its strategic location, ability to easily transport goods to the Middle East and the amount of uranium it produces. The issue of sustainability for a nuclear power plant is as discussed in the previous blog, with the water supply. Here are other reasons why a nuclear power plant is not the answer for Iran's electricity problem.

Rising temperatures. With limiting water supply and a rising temperature, the situation becomes critical. When other countries faced this issue they had to make drastic decisions:

• France paid 300 million euros to import electricity due to an extended heat wave rather than run its nuclear power plant at full capacity in 2003
• In 2007 the Tennessee Valley Authority curtailed hydroelectric power generation to conserve water during a drought
• In 2006 there was a heat wave that forced nuclear plants to reduce output because it was heating up the Mississippi River
• In China in 2008 dozens of planned coal-to-liquid projects were abandoned because of the impact on scarce water resources.

Other option. Low carbon renewable energy technology using wind or solar photovoltaic methods can result in a 50% reduction in water usage in the UK by 2030. What is the reason for Iran not focussing more on solar energy? The temperature is rising and there is considerably less water. 

Sustaining a heavy water supply. Based on my research, nuclear power plants need a heavy water supply. Deuterium needed for the heavy water is found in small amounts in large amounts of water.

 

Inability to sustain regulations. In the USA, it is estimated that there are about 2300 tonnes of uranium unaccounted for. Somehow it slipped through the regulations and monitoring mechanisms in place. I believe that in Iran there is a worse situation. Estimated available energy sources shows that with Reasonable Assured Resources up to 2016, uranium was at 1407 tonnes in Iran. No one knows for sure. 

Iran has already admitted to have had dealings on the black market. Pakistani scientist A. Q. Khan ran an illegal global nuclear trafficking network that provided Iran with P-2 centrifuge blueprints in 1996. It is suspected that there were Russian scientists who helped them illegally despite Russia scaling back efforts with Iran at that point. Perhaps this is an area that needs further regulations. 

But you see how easy it is to get into that underground criminal activity? If it is a company and I am looking at partners, suppliers and ethics, I would not see reason to trust. If I look at the history of the nation leaders I don't see why I should trust.  

Lack of genuine interest. Trump's sanctions were even more stringent than that of Bush's. Pulling out of the deal sped up events that I think would have occurred even if USA stayed in the agreement. I have to point out that, Germany, France and the United Kingdom were willing to work with Iran. But Iran saw this as an opportunity to openly violate the terms. If they were genuine they could have stayed in the deal with the other nations and proven their critics wrong. 

Lack of peace.  ISIS was a threat during Obama's time and still is. The use of nuclear power plants can be hijacked by a take over of such a terrorist organisation. This is a second level security risk to the world. Now that Iran has reached a specific ability and capacity can anyone guarantee that Iran will not be under attack and taken over. The situation in ME is too volatile to risk. 

Lack of truthfulness. Often the Iranian regime has been asked to tell the truth about its past history of developing the nuclear weapons programme. To avoid an assessment of how far the programme has reached they have consistently denied many things. 

On July 10, 2021, there was an explosion in Tehran, a densely populated city. Iran denies that anyone was hurt and any building was damaged. If you look you will see a suspicious smoke mushroom. I do not think that I can trust Iran to ensure the safety of others over their own agenda.

2016-2021

The Institute for Science and International Security had criticised the JCPOA. In 2016 they claimed that the verification and monitoring process for compliance was not thorough enough. The red flag they pointed at was the two occasions in which heavy water allotment of 130 metric tonnes had been exceeded. 

To complicate the problem it was basically sanctioned as Iran was allowed to store it in Oman and later sell to the USA.  This was a loophole in the multinational agreement. One that seems to be in a conflict of interest for USA. 

Since April 2018, Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu had been warning the world of the situation that they have now woken up to. On January 14, 2020 Netanyahu stated that Iran will have enough uranium to manufacture a nuclear weapon by end of 2020 and will take another 24 months to have a missile capable of carrying it. 

On June 14, 2021 Iran was reported to have 6.5 kgs of 60% enriched uranium. Iran is now at the stage for definite intent to make a nuclear weapon. Additionally, it is not an issue of renegotiating as Iran cannot unlearn the practise or experience already gained so far. By end of 2021, they 

Not only is the cat out of the bag but the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is left holding an empty bag. Based on these revelations, I think Trump was right to speed things along. Precious time would have been lost and the rude awakening would have been too late. 

On June 28th, 2021 the outgoing Israeli President Reuven Rivlin met with USA President Joe Biden. At that meeting President Biden promises that he will not allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon. Biden does not understand that he has already failed in keeping this promise.

 

THREATS

Along with betraying the trust of the people there are constant threats to their lives. Scaled up is the threats to other leaders and to people globally. The hate speech and inciting of violence continues. Iran in particular is known for this so I will not get into details on it. 

By habit the first resort is to threaten. Although Britain, Germany and France tried to bring Iran back to the table then President, Hassan Rouhani, responded on television; Today the American soldier is in danger, tomorrow the European soldier could be in danger. 

Hate speech shows a lack of respect for other leaders. Threats show a lack of value for human life. I am not looking forward to being held hostage to Iran's threat of a nuclear bombing in my future every time someone says 'no' to Iran. 

Personally, I am already seeing where leaders are held hostage to political correctness and cannot say outright that Iran is lying. Imagine the situation with a nuclear weapon. There is always something to avenge.

There are some who think that Iran’s foreign policy is in reaction to that of the USA’s towards Iran. I do not agree with this statement. I even read a research article published on the concept but while the researcher laid out a chronological sequence of events his conclusion was not in keeping with his facts simply because he limited the paper to a tit for tat replay of main events. The nuclear weapons problem is one of intent, and trust.

Iran was born in the 1920s after the Ottoman Empire lost to the British. Because many Islamic believers see the Islamic Republic of Iran as a rebirthing of the might of Islam, Iran’s motives are based on proving itself. An ego plus a nuclear weapon does not inspire confidence in me.

BETRAYAL OF TRUST

It seems that by all means Iran is resisting democracy. This means that without internal checks and balances that come with a democracy, the people are held hostage in Iran. It means that the rest of the world cannot depend on these institutions of democracy to function unbiased in Iran e.g. media industry. So far much has been ascertained from the social media posts of the many who risk their lives to put out posts exposing the regime. Can we continue to depend on this?

The question for me at this point is Can I trust an extremist regime with a nuclear weapons development programme? This raises another question for me, If it is a development programme then is the intention to sell to other nations? 

If the Islamic Republic of Iran was said to be on its path of progressive development I do not see it. Not if it cannot provide the basic utilities to its people such as water and electricity. Iran's might is not seen in how it treats its people.   It is a huge betrayal of trust. A tragedy.

Based on the rising temperature that has in the past affected the running of other nuclear power plants I do not think that the water needed is sustainable in Iran. I do not think that there can be trust or high oxytocin production in my brain for Iran's intentions based on Iran's history of hiding its activities, the continued hate speech, and it's military emphasis in and out of Iran. 

The upgrading of the electricity sector in Iran is needed. The introduction of competition and meeting the deficit created by a government run industry should be the priority right now. No one is attacking Iran but Iran is in everyone else's business. They are over stretching themselves for a reason and it is a consistent effort made. Perhaps there is a nuclear jihad?

I have learnt that when it comes to Iran and when it comes to the Middle East there is always the magicians sleight of hand. The big threat is the nuclear bomb but is that really the only threat? While there are many inconsistencies in the story of Iran's nuclear power plant, I can find consistencies. They are obvious when I bring Arafat's Strategy of Stages concept into play:

• Iran's occupation and colonisation of the region
• Iran's continued extremism, now with fake elections
• The development of a land bridge to Israel, threat to Israel
• Iran's security issues with daesh (ISIS)
• Iran's tendency to use proxies to attack American interests in the region

I will not be blind to this. Too many lives are at stake. Is it a case for the people to divorce from the government? Or is it a case of going completely nuclear? Either way the ending is a tragedy.  There is definitely no oxytocin to be produced on this issue. I think that the IAEA and the USA have betrayed the trust that is demanded of us as global citizens and the trust of the Iranian people.

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Sources:

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