OF WORDS AND MEN - DE-ESCALATE AND DISPROPORTIONATE

Former Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu

     Two siblings fighting and the mother having her afternoon drink shouts, take it down children! You know I need a bit of quiet on an afternoon. The younger of the two says, he started it first mummy. The elder is defiant, no that's not true, he started it first, he kicked me. The younger quite dramatically continues, he gets everything, why can't I have one too? The mother looks at the older child and says, you have to share with your brother. He replied to her, you aren't going to tell him anything about kicking me? The mother looks at them both with nothing but disgust, well if he kicks you kick him back or leave him alone he is younger.  

What do you think? Did she referee right? But this is how I see the Middle East  (ME) situation. At least the happenings in the last few months. Of course the mother is the USA President. It seems like a right of passage for every US President to have to tell them what to do and how. The sign of greatness measured by bringing peace to the Middle East. The role of the referee was once played by the Queen Mother but in exasperation and having to be politically correct she more or less allowed the USA to take over the role. 

    Some people believe that Britain betrayed the Israelis around the time of Lord Balfour's declaration and has since not been able to recover its role as a superpower. That would mean that the incoming super power wielding the big stick and committed to policing the world would suffer the same faith for its latest betrayal to then President, Benjamin Netanyahu. That would be through new President Joe Biden and not the devoted Donald Trump. These are the days most definitely when we will see a new balance sheet of power and alliances.

Carricature of Big Stick Policy by Rueben Dario

For sure for sure (as my Venezuelan friend likes to say), we will be seeing nations in a different way. There is a distinct vain hand behind some goings on if you know what I mean. As part of the series on Of Words and Men I want to discuss the words and meanings of the following:

• Deescalate 
• Disproportionate

Let us return to my analogy for a little guidance. 

Rafael Grossi, Director General,
International Atomic Energy Agency, UN

The Parent

By looking at the parent I am able to provide a situation analysis within a limited time span. Since the turn of the twentieth century every incoming President has tried to have a go at Abraham's pesky children. Within recent years it has been along the lines of the Iran nuclear situation and policing the peace. However, three things happened around the same time in 2021: 

• Iran vowed reprisals for the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Commander of the Quds Force which is part of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in January 2020 
• By May 2021 the deal between Iran and the International Atomic Agency expires as Iran is caught with enough uranium for an atomic bomb
• Iran incites and supplies Hamas and Palestine to create a three phased attack on Israel

On Feb 11, 2021 The U.S. military intelligence agency warned that Iran may encourage limited attacks against U.S. forces in northeastern Syria to pressure them to withdraw. According to the report, Iran has tried to recruit local Syrians in the eastern part of the Deir a-Zour district to gather information on US forces and the coalition within Syria. It is expected that Iran may allow these people to carry out attacks on its behalf against US forces. 

As stated by US Central Command, General McKenzie in Congress. 

Iraqi Shiite militias received suicide drones/UAVs and are trained to use them. 

They are used to attack US soldiers and US interests in Iraq.

Iranian proxy militia take over Baghdad, May 2021

This is not Iraq military moving around in Iraq 

they are proxies from Iran, May 2021

Iran has been creating instability in the region. They have been constantly moving proxies and artillery for different levels of warfare in Iran, Iraq and Syria. They have attacked US military bases and US interests in Syria and Iraq consistently since Biden took power. Iran used this to test the new administration. Here is a list although it is limited:

• (Feb 15) Iraq - Shiite militias fired five Katyusha rockets at a U.S. base in the northern Iraqi Arbil field. One U.S. soldier was wounded. 

• (Feb 16) Iraq - A U.S. citizen was killed and six others were injured, including a U.S. soldier in a rocket attack in northern Iraq.  A pro-Iranian organization called the Uliya 'a-Dam Battalions claimed responsibility for firing 24 rockets at a U.S. base from a distance of 7 km.

• (Feb 25) Syria - USA attacked targets of pro-Iranian Shiite militias in the Al-Qa'am border crossing area. Seven targets were bombed but six were evacuated in advance by the militias. One militia member, Rahi a-Sharifi, was killed. This prompted Russian condemnation on the sovereignty of Syria and criticism that the attack was a wasted effort as nothing of significance was destroyed. Added to this it was on Iraqi soil that USA was being attacked.

• (March 9) US President took on responsibilities of the Secretary of Defense by declaring he alone can authorize American strikes on terrorist elements in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. He imposed restrictions on UAV attacks against extremist groups in conflict zones in which the United States officially participates. 

• (Mar 23) Syria - Rockets were fired at the American base located at the Conoco gas field in Deir a-Zour.  There are casualties among U.S. forces. 

• (April 14, 2021) Iraq - Rocket attack on the Irbil airport. Also, a UAV that disappeared from the American radar due to low altitude, hit a warehouse of the CIA. Major damage!

• (April 22) Iraq - 8 rockets were fired towards some sensitive targets in Baghdad Iraq last night. Three of them fell inside the international airport that was shut down for a while. Rockets fell close to the “Victory” US base. Iran is using its militias to kick the Americans out of what they’ve turned into their protectorate

8 rockets fired in Baghdad,  April 22, 2021

• May 2 Iraq - 10 rockets fired at the US section of Iraqi Al-Balad Air Force Base, casualties were reported

• (May 21) Iraq - The Iraqi opposition in coordination with the Shiite factions issued on Friday an unusual joint statement, Following the reluctance of the United States to leave Iraq, Shiite organizations intend to escalate significantly

• (May 22) Iraq - Three US military convoys were attacked throughout Saturday 

• (June 9, 2021) Iraq - Another rocket attack on the American forces at Victoria base near the international airport of Baghdad! At least five rockets hit them.

Police fire on protesters in Iraq, they use live bullets

Constantly Iran arms it’s proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. It never stops. Things were intensified since Biden took office. Perhaps they knew something? This prompted Russian Operations Command stationed at Khmeimim airbase to demand that the IRGC evacuate their forces and vehicles from the T4 base on Feb 3. The IRGC response to the Russians was, we won’t evacuate, we were here first. Iran is emboldened against Russia because they know that USA will not be a problem.

Russian soldier guards the door to a comrade who was injured in Syria

Many things do not make it to mainstream media particularly in the west. Along with the attacks on Americans in ME was an interview. Sometime around April 27, the recording of an interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif took place as part of a historical documentation project of Mr. Rouhani's government. This documentation project was to come out after the departure of incumbent President Rouhani.  It revealed: 

• Secretary of State John Kerry gave him classified information on Israeli operations against Iranian targets in Syria
• There was a grave conflict within Iran between the IRGC and the Iranian government

 
Former USA, Secretary of State, John Kerry (2013-2017)

Now keep in mind the ISIS threat that is looming in the region like a mass of dark clouds. To date, it has not been stamped out. The Russian and Syrian forces have been unable to eradicate them despite the use of force, including special units and intense Russian airstrikes day and night. 

Hassan Abeisi, former senior commander in the IRGC 

says they will turn the White House into a Shiite shrine for Qasem Soleimani

Having vowed vengeance for killing an integral member of the IRGC, and encouraged by the Biden's slow and ineffective handling of attacks on his own people, Iran funds and incites a war against Israel. The attack done in three phases was coordinated as an inside operation first then scaled up to an external attack both virtually (Onscreens) and physically. 

It is possible this was a dress rehearsal as Iran has simultaneously been advancing towards Israel through Syria. On the Israel-Lebanese border a tunnel is discovered that is equipped with electricity and communication lines and it is twenty-two stories down. Therefore there is an impending war or a threat of war in what Israel calls the ring of fire.

22 stories deep! This tunnel found under 

the Lebanese border to Israel in May 2021

 

The fight

Now that we have established that USA is no longer able to appropriately or accurately impact on the situation in ME, we see that Russia, Iran and Israel are key players in the region. However, Russia is not really interested in getting into a prolonged brawl. They have an interest in Syria and that is the main reason for involvement. At this point Turkey is not much of a threat or issue except that it has ventured to verbally support Hamas. Iran has proxies or fighter groups in different countries.

 

 Protesters in Bhagdad

Every time I hear about the ME, I hear specific statements made and I hear rhetoric. There is hardly a clear logical statement made. Perhaps because it has no truth behind it. I have found that much confusion around this situation is because the people who are making the decisions and making the most noise about it have specific agendas. The influencers weighing in on the situation are not well informed or factually based. 

Take my analogy for example. First, the parent is really interested in having a drink and being able to get some quiet. So the attitude is not one for monitoring, measuring and meeting out justice, it is to quell or pacify the noise. In fact the parent created the situation or made it worse. Because if you have children you cannot give a gift to one and then insist it be shared. It is either a gift to the one child or something to be shared and should have been stated when it was given. 

By making the older share, the older is now placed in an unfair situation and the younger one remains uncorrected. This is how I see Palestine and Hamas. Like spoilt children. We don't want you to throw a tantrum so we will not call you a liar or a bully. Sadly, I fear it has gone beyond this but maybe that is for another blog.

This is the behaviour of Palestinians when they go into Jerusalem

During the May 2021 war on Israel, we heard the words de-escalate and disproportionate. This came from mostly pro-Palestinian factions scattered globally and from the USA. In fact, the Democratic Party in the USA went against Joe Biden who said that they should sort it between themselves like the parent, take it down. The democrats were saying stop that.

 

The home remedy

Now let us look at the practicality of this in a scaled up or life and death situation. I particularly wanted to use this analogy because a war is a life and death crisis not a brawl in the living room. I find that the treatment that outsiders want to apply as a solution to be consistently irrelevant. 

7-8 feet deep shaft exposed (see below)

Tunnel shaft under the UNRWA school yard in Gaza City
is exposed by Israel defensive actions

How Israel is judged others are not. Like mother hens who have a favourite child. There will always be casualties in war. Israel is said to be disproportionate in attacking Hamas and this is how it plays out with the home remedy or school mam solution using the concepts of de-escalation and disproportionate:

• Israel must not strategically disable Hamas's infrastructure, communication and terrorists 

• Israel should allow Hamas to fulfil its vows to kill and wipe out the population which is the largest community of Jews. Simply because in Gaza there are less of a population compared to Israel 

• Hamas which is the Muslim Brotherhood banned in other Islamic countries must be allowed to continue to dig tunnels under Israeli schools and hospitals for future attacks

• Israel must allow Hamas to kill Israelis, allow missiles to land and kill civilians 

• Israel must allow Hamas to fire rockets which kill civilians in Gaza

• Israel must not use the iron dome to defend and allow more rockets into Israel to kill more civilians

• Israel must allow Hamas time to take out themselves from harm’s way and to secure their equipment inclusive of jammers that hamper Israel’s missiles

Hamas misfires rockets and kills civilians
in Gaza not Israel, May 2021

Iron Dome takes down the missiles 
fired by Hamas on civilians

Essentially by taking this strategy, they are really saying; Israel is to be blamed and has to take responsibility for their actions even their  human shields, Israel must be held hostage because Israel dares to exist, and because Israel exists it is to be blamed for Hamas firing on civilians in Israeli territories. To them, it does not matter that Israeli soldiers and families are affected. Other countries can deter their enemies but Israel must not. Is this because they do not care about the lives of their own? 

Footage of a collapsed terrorist tunnel in Gaza, (the Metro) see how deep it is

If there were not 312 miles of tunnels to destroy there would not have been a prolonged twelve days of war. It did not matter that many people living in Gaza were fed up with Hamas. It did not matter that while Israel was trying to be decisive in a war Hamas was carelessly firing. It did not matter that Israel had no help from other nations but Hamas had Iran funding it.

While civilians sleep in Ashdod, Israel, 

the Iron Dome takes down the missiles May 2021

The other aspect of being disproportionate is in the use of the Iron Dome. But as seen in the video above and other pictures and videos, it is not home made bombs that are being used against Israel. The Iron Dome is needed as in one night 200 missiles were fired on Israel in civilian areas. Citizens were hiding out in war bunkers. Hamas and other Palestinian factions use terrorist tactics on Israeli civilians. The artillery used by these groups are not home made. Terror tunnels or metros are dug underground where it cannot be seen and are under schools and hospitals.

The rhetoric was inappropriate but it was obvious that Israel is being treated differently. Any time Russians are attacked in Syria the Syrian people pay a dear price. No one talks about the civilians who get hurt when Russia retaliates indiscriminately within an hour. Egypt recently destroyed a terror tunnel with persons inside. 

Drones supplied by Iran to attack Israel, May 2021

Given the situation assessed prior to the war, during and after, it is apparent that Israel stands alone for the most part. This was proven when they provided the smoking gun to Joe Biden and it was leaked by the US government to the public. Not surprising since John Kerry had already started this tradition.

As I wrote earlier, understanding the ME is not very simple and it is not convenient. What would you do if you had gophers digging into your yard, eating your vegetables, and attacking your children? What would you do if your neighbours around you would at any unguarded moment abduct and kill your children, detonate bombs at family gatherings or constantly say you should not exist? How would you react if this happens every day for years? 

I hope you are beginning to relate. Now while members of the United Nations are investigating Israel for war crimes the question of policing remains. No one in the ME considers the USA as a superpower. Iran has infighting between IRGC and government and that makes them unstable. They are dishonest and overly eager and ambitious to control the region. Even while writing this blog there have been major developments but I have to hold back. 

Did I mention that Iran broke the agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency? It has been proven that Iran is creating a nuclear bomb. If Israel cannot defend itself or maintain order in the region then who can be trusted to do this? Iraq has been taken over by Iran. Saudi Arabia is victimised similarly to Israel as enemies of Iran. Lebanon is broke. Turkey is pro-Iran. 

The rhetoric does not match the situation in the Middle East nor is it appropriate for war. Words like de-escalate and disproportionate are not realistic when it comes to the ME. It cannot be applied especially since the war is fought in various ways both psychologically, virtually and physically by the Arabs and Muslims. 

The Americans have allowed sentiment to hijack their conversation and their sense of fairness. While they believed the misinformation being spread, and the propaganda about Palestine, they forgot that Israelis are people too. Israel has the right to protect themselves and have self-worth. The question remains who will police the ME? (coming soon)

Former PM Benjamin Netanyahu

Thank you Behold Israel for your help.

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